The SSC shall review the following criteria, and any additional relevant information, to assign managed stocks to a specific control rule level when developing ABC recommendations. The SSC shall review the ABC control rule level assignment for stocks each time an ABC is recommended. The ABC may be recommended for up to 3 years for all stocks, with the exception of 5 years for spiny dogfish. The SSC may deviate from the control rule methods or level criteria and recommend an ABC that differs from the result of the ABC control rule calculation; however, any such deviation must include the following: A description of why the deviation is warranted, description of the methods used to derive the alternative ABC, and an explanation of how the deviation is consistent with National Standard 2.
(a) Level 1 criteria. (1) Assignment of a stock to Level 1 requires the SSC to determine the following:
(1) Assignment of a stock to Level 1 requires the SSC to determine the following:
(i) All important sources of scientific uncertainty are captured in the stock assessment model;
(ii) The probability distribution of the OFL is calculated within the stock assessment and provides an adequate description of the OFL uncertainty;
(iii) The stock assessment model structure and treatment of the data prior to use in the model includes relevant details of the biology of the stock, fisheries that exploit the stock, and data collection methods;
(iv) The stock assessment provides the following estimates: Fishing mortality rate (F) at MSY or an alternate maximum fishing mortality threshold (MFMT) to define OFL, biomass, biological reference points, stock status, OFL, and the respective uncertainties associated with each value; and
(v) No substantial retrospective patterns exist in the stock assessment estimates of fishing mortality, biomass, and recruitment.
(2) Level 1 ABC determination. Stocks assigned to Level 1 by the SSC will have the ABC derived by applying acceptable probability of overfishing from the MAFMC's risk policy found in Sec. 648.21(a) through (d) to the probability distribution of the OFL.
(b) Level 2 criteria. (1) Assignment of a stock to Level 2 requires the SSC to determine the following:
(1) Assignment of a stock to Level 2 requires the SSC to determine the following:
(i) Key features of the stock biology, the fisheries that exploit it, and/or the data collection methods for stock information are missing from the stock assessment;
(ii) The stock assessment provides reference points (which may be proxies), stock status, and uncertainties associated with each; however, the uncertainty is not fully promulgated through the stock assessment model and/or some important sources of uncertainty may be lacking;
(iii) The stock assessment provides estimates of the precision of biomass, fishing mortality, and reference points; and
(iv) The accuracy of the minimum fishing mortality threshold and projected future biomass is estimated in the stock assessment using ad hoc methods.
(2) Level 2 ABC determination. Stocks assigned to Level 2 by the SSC will have the ABC derived by applying acceptable probability of overfishing from the MAFMC's risk policy found in Sec. 648.21(a) through (d) to the probability distribution of the OFL.
(c) Level 3 criteria. (1) Assignment of a stock to Level 3 requires the SSC to determine that the stock assessment attributes are the same as those for a Level 2 assessment listed in Sec. 648.20(d)(1) through (4), except that the stock assessment does not contain an estimated probability distribution of OFL or the stock assessment provided OFL probability distribution is judged by the SSC to not adequately reflect uncertainty in the OFL estimate.
(1) Assignment of a stock to Level 3 requires the SSC to determine that the stock assessment attributes are the same as those for a Level 2 assessment listed in Sec. 648.20(d)(1) through (4), except that the stock assessment does not contain an estimated probability distribution of OFL or the stock assessment provided OFL probability distribution is judged by the SSC to not adequately reflect uncertainty in the OFL estimate.
(2) Level 3 ABC determination. Stocks assigned to Level 3 will have ABC derived by one of the following two methods:
(i) The SSC will derive the ABC by applying the acceptable probability of overfishing from the MAFMC's risk policy found in Sec. 648.21(a) through (d) to an SSC-adjusted OFL probability distribution. The SSC will use default levels of uncertainty in the adjusted OFL probability distribution based on literature review and evaluation of control rule performance; or,
(ii) If the SSC cannot develop an OFL distribution, a default control rule of 75 percent of the FMSY value will be applied to derive ABC.
(d) Level 4 criteria. (1) Assignment of a stock to Level 4 requires the SSC to determine that none of the criteria for Levels 1-3 found in Sec. 648.20(a) through (c) were met.
(1) Assignment of a stock to Level 4 requires the SSC to determine that none of the criteria for Levels 1-3 found in Sec. 648.20(a) through (c) were met.
(2) Level 4 ABC determination. Stocks assigned to Level 4 will have ABC derived using control rules developed on a case-by-case basis by the SSC based on biomass and catch history and application of the MAFMC's risk policy found in Sec. 648.21(a) through (d). [76 FR 60615, Sept. 29, 2011]